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[title] => Zabrinjavajuća prognoza obavještajaca koji su dosad bili među pouzdanijima: ‘Kremlj se sprema na sukob sa Zapadom!‘
[alias] => obavjestajci-cije-prognoze-o-rusiji-su-dosad-bile-medu-najboljima-kremlj-se-sprema-na-sukob-sa-zapadom
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Rusija se priprema za vojni sukob sa Zapadom u sljedećem desetljeću i moglo bi je se odvratiti gomilanjem oružanih protusnaga, rekla je u utorak estonska vanjska obavještajna služba, koja se po pitanju prognoza oko ruskih poteza dosad pokazala ažurnijom i preciznijom od mnogih drugih.
Sve veći broj zapadnih dužnosnika upozorava na rusku vojnu prijetnju zemljama duž istočnog krila NATO-a, pozivajući Europu da se pripremi ponovnim naoružavanjem.
Šef obavještajne službe rekao je da se procjena temelji na ruskim planovima da udvostruči broj snaga stacioniranih duž svoje granice s članicama NATO-a Finskom i baltičkim državama Estonijom, Litvom i Latvijom.
"Rusija je odabrala put koji je dugotrajna konfrontacija... i Kremlj vjerojatno predviđa mogući sukob s NATO-om u sljedećih desetak godina", rekao je Kaupo Rosin novinarima prilikom objave izvješća o prijetnjama nacionalnoj sigurnosti Estonije.
Skorašnji ruski vojni napad "vrlo je malo vjerojatan", dodao je, dijelom stoga što Rusija mora zadržati snage u Ukrajini, a ostao bi malo vjerojatan ako bi rusko gomilanje snaga bilo jednako u Europi.
"Ako nismo spremni, vjerojatnost (vojnog ruskog napada) bila bi mnogo veća nego bez ikakvih priprema", izjavio je Rosin.
Estonija i druge baltičke države povećale su svoju vojnu potrošnju na više od 2 posto vrijednosti svojih gospodarstava nakon što je Rusija anektirala Krim 2014., a NATO saveznici povećali su svoju prisutnost u tim zemljama.
Njemačka planira imati 4800 vojnika spremnih za borbu u regiji do 2027. godine, u prvom stalnom inozemnom rasporedu nakon Drugog svjetskog rata, a Rosin je rekao da se NATO i njegovi saveznici kreću u pravom smjeru da se suprotstave ruskoj prijetnji.
Rosin ne očekuje ruski proboj u Ukrajini prije predsjedničkih izbora u ožujku, jer bi za postizanje tog cilja trebalo mobilizirati znatno više snaga.
Govoreći o komentarima američkog predsjedničkog kandidata Donalda Trumpa da ne bi branio saveznike koji ne troše dovoljno na obranu, Rosin je rekao kako "takve izjave nikad nisu od pomoći".
Sposobnost Rusije da opskrbi svoje snage streljivom i dalje nadmašuje sposobnost Ukrajine, pa ako se zapadna potpora ne održi ili poveća, Ukrajina vjerojatno neće moći promijeniti situaciju na bojnom polju, dodao je.
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Russian Navy members patrol in front of a headquarter of Russia‘s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, in Crimea on July 31, 2022. Ukraine on July 31, 2022 denied carrying out a drone attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea fleet in annexed Crimea, that Russian officials said wounded six personnel. (Photo by STRINGER/AFP)
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Rusija se priprema za vojni sukob sa Zapadom u sljedećem desetljeću i moglo bi je se odvratiti gomilanjem oružanih protusnaga, rekla je u utorak estonska vanjska obavještajna služba, koja se po pitanju prognoza oko ruskih poteza dosad pokazala ažurnijom i preciznijom od mnogih drugih.
Sve veći broj zapadnih dužnosnika upozorava na rusku vojnu prijetnju zemljama duž istočnog krila NATO-a, pozivajući Europu da se pripremi ponovnim naoružavanjem.
Šef obavještajne službe rekao je da se procjena temelji na ruskim planovima da udvostruči broj snaga stacioniranih duž svoje granice s članicama NATO-a Finskom i baltičkim državama Estonijom, Litvom i Latvijom.
"Rusija je odabrala put koji je dugotrajna konfrontacija... i Kremlj vjerojatno predviđa mogući sukob s NATO-om u sljedećih desetak godina", rekao je Kaupo Rosin novinarima prilikom objave izvješća o prijetnjama nacionalnoj sigurnosti Estonije.
Skorašnji ruski vojni napad "vrlo je malo vjerojatan", dodao je, dijelom stoga što Rusija mora zadržati snage u Ukrajini, a ostao bi malo vjerojatan ako bi rusko gomilanje snaga bilo jednako u Europi.
"Ako nismo spremni, vjerojatnost (vojnog ruskog napada) bila bi mnogo veća nego bez ikakvih priprema", izjavio je Rosin.
Estonija i druge baltičke države povećale su svoju vojnu potrošnju na više od 2 posto vrijednosti svojih gospodarstava nakon što je Rusija anektirala Krim 2014., a NATO saveznici povećali su svoju prisutnost u tim zemljama.
Njemačka planira imati 4800 vojnika spremnih za borbu u regiji do 2027. godine, u prvom stalnom inozemnom rasporedu nakon Drugog svjetskog rata, a Rosin je rekao da se NATO i njegovi saveznici kreću u pravom smjeru da se suprotstave ruskoj prijetnji.
Rosin ne očekuje ruski proboj u Ukrajini prije predsjedničkih izbora u ožujku, jer bi za postizanje tog cilja trebalo mobilizirati znatno više snaga.
Govoreći o komentarima američkog predsjedničkog kandidata Donalda Trumpa da ne bi branio saveznike koji ne troše dovoljno na obranu, Rosin je rekao kako "takve izjave nikad nisu od pomoći".
Sposobnost Rusije da opskrbi svoje snage streljivom i dalje nadmašuje sposobnost Ukrajine, pa ako se zapadna potpora ne održi ili poveća, Ukrajina vjerojatno neće moći promijeniti situaciju na bojnom polju, dodao je.
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19. svibanj 2024 10:30
