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stdClass Object ( [id] => 1128770 [title] => HDZ i dalje nedodirljiv, mrtva trka na ljevici: razlika između SDP-a i Možemo! na razini statističke pogreške. Tko će profitirati od potonuća Domovinskog pokreta? [alias] => hdz-i-dalje-nedodirljiv-mrtva-trka-na-ljevici-razlika-izmedu-sdp-a-i-mozemo-na-razini-statisticke-pogreske-tko-ce-profitirati-od-potonuca-domovinskog-pokreta [catid] => 242 [published] => 1 [introtext] => [fulltext] =>

Pet dana nakon početka jesenskog zasjedanja Hrvatskog sabora, u središnjem Dnevniku HTV-a objavljen je prvi jesenski HRejting. Istraživanje je provedeno od 15. do 18. rujna na uzorku od 1400 ispitanika. Najveća pogreška uzorka za rejting stranaka je +/- 2, 95 posto, a pouzdanost istraživanja čak 95 posto.

Rezultate HRejtinga, kao i obično, u središnjem Dnevniku HTV-a je predstavila Tatjana Munižaba otkrivši, između ostalog, koliko bi stranaka ostalo u Saboru da su jučer bili parlamentarni izbori.

"Kad bi se zabranile predizborne koalicije, a cijela država bila jedna izborna jedinica, u Hrvatskoj bi nastupio pomor parlamentarnih stranaka. Umjesto sadašnje 22, podijeljene u čak 14 saborskih klubova, ostale bi četiri stranke i isto toliko klubova zastupnika", kazala je objasnivši kako samo četirima političkim strankama rujanski HRejting prognozira prelazak izbornoga praga.

Najprije, HDZ-u koji trenutačno uživa 27,1% biračke potpore. Točno 10% manje ima drugoplasirani SDP (17,1%). Iako je njegovih 17% vjerojatno bolje od onoga što sami očekuju, zaostatak Možemo! od samo jedan posto (16,1%) upućuje na to da bi SDP već u listopadu, ne dovede li se brzo u nekakav red, mogao ostati bez epiteta "najjača oporbena stranka", dodala je. Trenutačno četvrti i zadnji koji još može računati na saborske mandate jest Most s potporom od 8,5 posto.

Stranke okupljene oko Škorina Domovinskog pokreta na posljednjim su parlamentarnim izborima osvojile 16 mandata. Sad Domovinski pokret više nema dodatak "Škorin", ali je na putu ka dodatku "Penavin", jer danas, kako kažu, s ponosom objavljuju da je vukovarski gradonačelnik i službeno ispunio pristupnicu stranci koja bi hrvatski parlament prema anketi mogla gledati - samo na televiziji, komentirala je Munižaba. Ma čiji Domovinski pokret na kraju bio, trenutačno je nisko, 3,9%. Kad bi se svim ostalim strankama iz ankete pribrojila čak i maksimalna statistička pogreška HRejtinga, vjerojatnost za prelazak izbornog praga za njih bi ostala nula. 

U skupini iznad jedan posto su: Fokus (1,7%), Centar (1,5%), HSS (1,5%), Hrvatski suverenisti (1,4%) i IDS (1,4%).

Skupinu ispod jedan posto predvodi HSU (0,8%), a slijede ga HNS (0,6%), Živi zid (0,5%), stranka pokojnog Milana Bandića (0,5%), HSLS (0,4%) i Reformisti (0,4%). Njih ukupno 11 jedva uspijevaju skupiti 10%, što je manje i od broja neodlučnih birača. Trenutačno ih je 14,5 %.

Usporedimo li ovaj HRejting s prošlima, bismo li nekoga mogli proglasiti najvećim gubitnikom ili pak dobitnikom?

Kandidate imamo i u jednoj i u drugoj kategoriji, kaže Munižaba, uz napomenu da će napraviti usporedbu kretanja rejtinga samo stranaka koje prelaze izborni prag ili su ga do prije samo pola godine prelazile.

"HDZ je od ožujka gotovo ukopan na 27%. Malo se diže, malo spušta, a to malo se redovito mjeri u promilima (-0,19%). Zadovoljan može biti i SDP. S obzirom na nered i rasulo u toj stranci, prema HRejtingu u pola godine pali su samo 1,63%. Ali je zato dvostruko ojačao Možemo. U šest mjeseci narasli su za 7,41%. S manje od 9% u ožujku došli su do 16,12% ovaj mjesec. Na drugoj strani političkog spektra, Most ipak nije toliko ili, točnije, nije uopće profitirao od rasula Domovinskog pokreta. Istina, vratili su se na četvrtu poziciju, ali su u odnosu na ožujak narasli samo 1,03%. Spomenuto rasulo, svađe, teške optužbe i klevete koje su cijelo ljeto iznosili u javnost, Domovinski pokret na kraju su dovele do titule najvećeg gubitnika hrvatske političke scene. U odnosu na ožujak popularnost se te stranke kod birača prepolovila (-4,24). Bili su na 8,11%, a pali su na 3,87%", kaže Munižaba.

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Tko će profitirati od potonuća Domovinskog pokreta? 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Pet dana nakon početka jesenskog zasjedanja Hrvatskog sabora, u središnjem Dnevniku HTV-a objavljen je prvi jesenski HRejting. Istraživanje je provedeno od 15. do 18. rujna na uzorku od 1400 ispitanika. Najveća pogreška uzorka za rejting stranaka je +/- 2, 95 posto, a pouzdanost istraživanja čak 95 posto.

Rezultate HRejtinga, kao i obično, u središnjem Dnevniku HTV-a je predstavila Tatjana Munižaba otkrivši, između ostalog, koliko bi stranaka ostalo u Saboru da su jučer bili parlamentarni izbori.

"Kad bi se zabranile predizborne koalicije, a cijela država bila jedna izborna jedinica, u Hrvatskoj bi nastupio pomor parlamentarnih stranaka. Umjesto sadašnje 22, podijeljene u čak 14 saborskih klubova, ostale bi četiri stranke i isto toliko klubova zastupnika", kazala je objasnivši kako samo četirima političkim strankama rujanski HRejting prognozira prelazak izbornoga praga.

Najprije, HDZ-u koji trenutačno uživa 27,1% biračke potpore. Točno 10% manje ima drugoplasirani SDP (17,1%). Iako je njegovih 17% vjerojatno bolje od onoga što sami očekuju, zaostatak Možemo! od samo jedan posto (16,1%) upućuje na to da bi SDP već u listopadu, ne dovede li se brzo u nekakav red, mogao ostati bez epiteta "najjača oporbena stranka", dodala je. Trenutačno četvrti i zadnji koji još može računati na saborske mandate jest Most s potporom od 8,5 posto.

Stranke okupljene oko Škorina Domovinskog pokreta na posljednjim su parlamentarnim izborima osvojile 16 mandata. Sad Domovinski pokret više nema dodatak "Škorin", ali je na putu ka dodatku "Penavin", jer danas, kako kažu, s ponosom objavljuju da je vukovarski gradonačelnik i službeno ispunio pristupnicu stranci koja bi hrvatski parlament prema anketi mogla gledati - samo na televiziji, komentirala je Munižaba. Ma čiji Domovinski pokret na kraju bio, trenutačno je nisko, 3,9%. Kad bi se svim ostalim strankama iz ankete pribrojila čak i maksimalna statistička pogreška HRejtinga, vjerojatnost za prelazak izbornog praga za njih bi ostala nula. 

U skupini iznad jedan posto su: Fokus (1,7%), Centar (1,5%), HSS (1,5%), Hrvatski suverenisti (1,4%) i IDS (1,4%).

Skupinu ispod jedan posto predvodi HSU (0,8%), a slijede ga HNS (0,6%), Živi zid (0,5%), stranka pokojnog Milana Bandića (0,5%), HSLS (0,4%) i Reformisti (0,4%). Njih ukupno 11 jedva uspijevaju skupiti 10%, što je manje i od broja neodlučnih birača. Trenutačno ih je 14,5 %.

Usporedimo li ovaj HRejting s prošlima, bismo li nekoga mogli proglasiti najvećim gubitnikom ili pak dobitnikom?

Kandidate imamo i u jednoj i u drugoj kategoriji, kaže Munižaba, uz napomenu da će napraviti usporedbu kretanja rejtinga samo stranaka koje prelaze izborni prag ili su ga do prije samo pola godine prelazile.

"HDZ je od ožujka gotovo ukopan na 27%. Malo se diže, malo spušta, a to malo se redovito mjeri u promilima (-0,19%). Zadovoljan može biti i SDP. S obzirom na nered i rasulo u toj stranci, prema HRejtingu u pola godine pali su samo 1,63%. Ali je zato dvostruko ojačao Možemo. U šest mjeseci narasli su za 7,41%. S manje od 9% u ožujku došli su do 16,12% ovaj mjesec. Na drugoj strani političkog spektra, Most ipak nije toliko ili, točnije, nije uopće profitirao od rasula Domovinskog pokreta. Istina, vratili su se na četvrtu poziciju, ali su u odnosu na ožujak narasli samo 1,03%. Spomenuto rasulo, svađe, teške optužbe i klevete koje su cijelo ljeto iznosili u javnost, Domovinski pokret na kraju su dovele do titule najvećeg gubitnika hrvatske političke scene. U odnosu na ožujak popularnost se te stranke kod birača prepolovila (-4,24). Bili su na 8,11%, a pali su na 3,87%", kaže Munižaba.

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Goran Mehkek/Cropix
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StoryEditorOCM
Politikaistraživanje hrt-a

HDZ i dalje nedodirljiv, mrtva trka na ljevici: razlika između SDP-a i Možemo! na razini statističke pogreške. Tko će profitirati od potonuća Domovinskog pokreta?

Piše psd
20. rujna 2021. - 20:36
14037340
PREMIUM
Goran Mehkek/Cropix

Pet dana nakon početka jesenskog zasjedanja Hrvatskog sabora, u središnjem Dnevniku HTV-a objavljen je prvi jesenski HRejting. Istraživanje je provedeno od 15. do 18. rujna na uzorku od 1400 ispitanika. Najveća pogreška uzorka za rejting stranaka je +/- 2, 95 posto, a pouzdanost istraživanja čak 95 posto.

Rezultate HRejtinga, kao i obično, u središnjem Dnevniku HTV-a je predstavila Tatjana Munižaba otkrivši, između ostalog, koliko bi stranaka ostalo u Saboru da su jučer bili parlamentarni izbori.

"Kad bi se zabranile predizborne koalicije, a cijela država bila jedna izborna jedinica, u Hrvatskoj bi nastupio pomor parlamentarnih stranaka. Umjesto sadašnje 22, podijeljene u čak 14 saborskih klubova, ostale bi četiri stranke i isto toliko klubova zastupnika", kazala je objas...

#STRANAČKI REJTING
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17. svibanj 2024 00:35