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Prema zadnjem istraživanju popularnosti političkih stranaka u ovoj godini, HR Rejtingu HTV-a, HDZ nastavlja razdoblje svoje političke stabilnosti s 27,5 posto biračke potpore. SDP (15,7 posto) i Možemo (15,4 posto) su pojedinačno gotovo 12 posto slabiji od vladajuće stranke i u laganome su mjesečnom padu: SDP je slabiji za 0,28% podrške nakon dramatičnog razlaza njihova saborskog kluba, a Možemo za 0,78 posto nakon prvih nesnalaženja u upravljanju glavnim gradom.

Takav aktualni raspored snaga mnoge je analitičare inspirirao na brzoplet zaključak kako Andreja Plenkovića i njegovu političku sljedbu nitko nema šanse ozbiljnije ugroziti, pri čemu se rutinski previđa gola matematička istina da SDP i Možemo zajedno uživaju više od 31 posto biračke potpore i rutinski nadilaze trenutnu izbornu snagu HDZ-a.

Štoviše, velikim problemom vladajuće stranke u aktualnom rasporedu političkih preferencija ispostavlja se upravo njihov trenutno jako slab koalicijski potencijal. Nasuprot lijevom partnerstvu SDP-a i platforme Možemo u Zagrebu koja je pokusni nukleus njihove buduće suradnje na nacionalnoj razini, stranka Andreja Plenkovića sutra ne bi imala velike šanse s kime dogovoriti parlamentarnu većinu na raspaloj sceni političke desnice ako se iznova, nekim čudom, ne bi okrenuli premijeru omraženome Mostu. Most je, naime, četvrta po snazi (8 posto) i još jedina stranka desnog centra koja na nacionalnoj razini uopće prelazi izborni prag. Nakon što je Domovinski pokret napustio njegov utemeljitelj Miroslav Škoro, njihova se snaga srozala ispod vrijednosti potrebnih za ulazak u parlament. Popravljanju rejtinga DP-a nije puno pridonio ni novi čelnik Ivan Penava, te u studenome on iznosi tek oko 4,5 posto.     

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HR Rejting
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Mogu li Andrej Plenković i HDZ mirno spavati temeljem aktualnog rasporeda političkih snaga? – pitali smo komunikacijskog stručnjaka i političkog stratega Gordana Turkovića.

Do Božića sigurno mogu, no za poslije ćemo vidjeti – uzvraća Turković, napominjući da se ne može na temelju samo jednoga istraživanja proricati dugoročne političke trendove i prognozirati budućnost. Za njega je rezultat trenutačnog stranačkog rejtinga prilično logičan, jer SDP donekle plaća cijenu svojih unutarstranačkih svađa, a Možemo pada jer mu je istekao 'grace period' u upravljanju glavnim gradom. Birači ga sad puno kritičnije preispituju, a i inače je poznato da su lijevi birači zahtjevniji od onih desnih. Partnerstvo SDP-a i platforme Možemo u Zagrebu po njemu se zasad čini obostrano isplativim za sutrašnju eventualnu nacionalnu koaliciju, premda su mnogi u početku bili skeptični kako će SDP proći u zagrebačkoj ulozi manjeg partnera.

Turković smatra kako je desnica jako oslabila uslijed raskola u Domovinskom pokretu i HDZ ih je sve uglavnom uspješno pasivizirao. Jedini koji se uspješno odupire tome je Most koji zapravo i nema nekakve stabilne strategije nego se uglavnom održava na životu uz pomoć devize 'prigode beru jagode'. Usprkos političkom svaštarenju i koketiranju s antivakserstvom, ipak su se zadržali na relevantnim razinama popularnosti, napominje Turković.

Premda na hrvatskom obzorju sve do 2024. nema izglednih i redovitih izbora, stvari se u politici brzo i dinamično mijenjaju, pogotovo u kriznim i turbulentnim vremenima. Sadašnja HDZ-ova parlamentarna većina nije baš previše raskošna i, usprkos stranačkoj političkoj stabilnosti, Andrej Plenković ne bi smio zanemariti nužan oprez. 

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Prema zadnjem istraživanju popularnosti političkih stranaka u ovoj godini, HR Rejtingu HTV-a, HDZ nastavlja razdoblje svoje političke stabilnosti s 27,5 posto biračke potpore. SDP (15,7 posto) i Možemo (15,4 posto) su pojedinačno gotovo 12 posto slabiji od vladajuće stranke i u laganome su mjesečnom padu: SDP je slabiji za 0,28% podrške nakon dramatičnog razlaza njihova saborskog kluba, a Možemo za 0,78 posto nakon prvih nesnalaženja u upravljanju glavnim gradom.

Takav aktualni raspored snaga mnoge je analitičare inspirirao na brzoplet zaključak kako Andreja Plenkovića i njegovu političku sljedbu nitko nema šanse ozbiljnije ugroziti, pri čemu se rutinski previđa gola matematička istina da SDP i Možemo zajedno uživaju više od 31 posto biračke potpore i rutinski nadilaze trenutnu izbornu snagu HDZ-a.

Štoviše, velikim problemom vladajuće stranke u aktualnom rasporedu političkih preferencija ispostavlja se upravo njihov trenutno jako slab koalicijski potencijal. Nasuprot lijevom partnerstvu SDP-a i platforme Možemo u Zagrebu koja je pokusni nukleus njihove buduće suradnje na nacionalnoj razini, stranka Andreja Plenkovića sutra ne bi imala velike šanse s kime dogovoriti parlamentarnu većinu na raspaloj sceni političke desnice ako se iznova, nekim čudom, ne bi okrenuli premijeru omraženome Mostu. Most je, naime, četvrta po snazi (8 posto) i još jedina stranka desnog centra koja na nacionalnoj razini uopće prelazi izborni prag. Nakon što je Domovinski pokret napustio njegov utemeljitelj Miroslav Škoro, njihova se snaga srozala ispod vrijednosti potrebnih za ulazak u parlament. Popravljanju rejtinga DP-a nije puno pridonio ni novi čelnik Ivan Penava, te u studenome on iznosi tek oko 4,5 posto.     

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HR Rejting
HRT
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Mogu li Andrej Plenković i HDZ mirno spavati temeljem aktualnog rasporeda političkih snaga? – pitali smo komunikacijskog stručnjaka i političkog stratega Gordana Turkovića.

Do Božića sigurno mogu, no za poslije ćemo vidjeti – uzvraća Turković, napominjući da se ne može na temelju samo jednoga istraživanja proricati dugoročne političke trendove i prognozirati budućnost. Za njega je rezultat trenutačnog stranačkog rejtinga prilično logičan, jer SDP donekle plaća cijenu svojih unutarstranačkih svađa, a Možemo pada jer mu je istekao 'grace period' u upravljanju glavnim gradom. Birači ga sad puno kritičnije preispituju, a i inače je poznato da su lijevi birači zahtjevniji od onih desnih. Partnerstvo SDP-a i platforme Možemo u Zagrebu po njemu se zasad čini obostrano isplativim za sutrašnju eventualnu nacionalnu koaliciju, premda su mnogi u početku bili skeptični kako će SDP proći u zagrebačkoj ulozi manjeg partnera.

Turković smatra kako je desnica jako oslabila uslijed raskola u Domovinskom pokretu i HDZ ih je sve uglavnom uspješno pasivizirao. Jedini koji se uspješno odupire tome je Most koji zapravo i nema nekakve stabilne strategije nego se uglavnom održava na životu uz pomoć devize 'prigode beru jagode'. Usprkos političkom svaštarenju i koketiranju s antivakserstvom, ipak su se zadržali na relevantnim razinama popularnosti, napominje Turković.

Premda na hrvatskom obzorju sve do 2024. nema izglednih i redovitih izbora, stvari se u politici brzo i dinamično mijenjaju, pogotovo u kriznim i turbulentnim vremenima. Sadašnja HDZ-ova parlamentarna većina nije baš previše raskošna i, usprkos stranačkoj političkoj stabilnosti, Andrej Plenković ne bi smio zanemariti nužan oprez. 

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Hrvatskastranački rejtinzi

Mogu li Plenković i HDZ mirno spavati? Politički stručnjak: Do Božića sigurno mogu, no za poslije ćemo vidjeti...; Evo tko bi ih mogao ugroziti

Piše Davor Krile
23. studenog 2021. - 12:59
20103034
PREMIUM
Cropix

Prema zadnjem istraživanju popularnosti političkih stranaka u ovoj godini, HR Rejtingu HTV-a, HDZ nastavlja razdoblje svoje političke stabilnosti s 27,5 posto biračke potpore. SDP (15,7 posto) i Možemo (15,4 posto) su pojedinačno gotovo 12 posto slabiji od vladajuće stranke i u laganome su mjesečnom padu: SDP je slabiji za 0,28% podrške nakon dramatičnog razlaza njihova saborskog kluba, a Možemo za 0,78 posto nakon prvih nesnalaženja u upravljanju glavnim gradom.

Takav aktualni raspored snaga mnoge je analitičare inspirirao na brzoplet zaključak kako Andreja Plenkovića i njegovu političku sljedbu nitko nema šanse ozbiljnije ugroziti, pri čemu se rutinski previđa gola matematička istina da SDP i Možemo zajedno uživaju više od 31 posto biračke potpore i rutinski nadilaze tre...

#HDZ#SDP#MOŽEMO #MOST#IZBORI#STRANAČKI REJTING
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