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Američki su znanstvenici ustanovili da najmanje 50 posto zaraza koronavirusom prenose ljudi bez simptoma bolesti, objavio je stručni časopis Journal of the American Medical Association, a prenio Business Insider.
Zamjenik direktora odjela za infektivne bolesti u američkom Centru za kontrolu i prevenciju bolesti (CDC) i voditelj istraživanja Jay Butler kazao je da rezultati njihove studije idu u prilog važnosti nošenja maski i pridržavanja fizičkog distanciranja.
Znanstvenici su za potrebe studije svrstali potencijalne prijenosnike koronavirusa u tri skupine: simptomatske, presimptomatske (oni koji još nemaju simptoma, ali će ih razviti) i asimptomatske.
Zatim su izradili model o tome koliko će koja skupina širiti koronavirus na temelju dana kad su ljudi najzarazniji. Kao baznu vrijednost odredili su peti dan od izloženosti koronavirusu jer je utvrđeno da je to prosjek trajanja inkubacije. To je vrijeme u kojemu većina ljudi razvije simptome.
U model su prvobitno ugrađene pretpostavke po kojima je 30 posto zaraženih asimptomatsko i po kojima je njihova količina zaraznosti nešto manja (75 posto) u usporedbi s onima koji pokazuju ili će razviti simptome.
Na tim su pretpostavkama rezultati pokazali da su samo asimptomatski ljudi odgovorni za 24 posto zaraza.
No znanstvenici su usto napravili scenarije po kojima je vrhunac zaraznosti treći, četvrti, šesti i sedmi dan, u kojima su podizali i spuštali postotak asimptomatskih ljudi, kao i njihovu stopu zaraznosti u odnosu na ostale skupine.
U velikoj većini tih scenarija pokazalo se da ljudi bez simptoma (asimptomatski i presimptomatski) prenose najmanje 50 posto novih zaraza.
"Razmjeri transmisije općenito su bili preko 50 posto, neovisno o širokom spektru baznih vrijednosti", kazao je Butler i dodao da je analitičare iznenadila dosljednost rezultata.
Čak i u najkonzervativnijoj procjeni, u kojoj je vrhunac zaraze sedmi dan nakon izloženosti virusu, a asimptomatski pacijenti uzrokuju 0 posto zaraza, oni presimptomatski svejedno su uzrokovali četvrtinu novih.
Butler i njegovi suradnici istodobno upozoravaju na to da njihovi modeli vjerojatno podcjenjuju stvaran postotak širenja u kojemu sudjeluju ljudi bez simptoma pošto su stope računali kao da se svi slobodno kreću kamo žele.
No u stvarnosti se na ulazu u mnoge restorane i ostale ustanove mjeri temperatura da bi se onemogućio ulazak ljudima sa simptomima. Usto su mnoge osobe sa simptomima otprije u samoizolaciji kod kuće, što znači da je manja vjerojatnost da će širiti zarazu poput onih koji se osjećaju zdravima.
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Američki su znanstvenici ustanovili da najmanje 50 posto zaraza koronavirusom prenose ljudi bez simptoma bolesti, objavio je stručni časopis Journal of the American Medical Association, a prenio Business Insider.
Zamjenik direktora odjela za infektivne bolesti u američkom Centru za kontrolu i prevenciju bolesti (CDC) i voditelj istraživanja Jay Butler kazao je da rezultati njihove studije idu u prilog važnosti nošenja maski i pridržavanja fizičkog distanciranja.
Znanstvenici su za potrebe studije svrstali potencijalne prijenosnike koronavirusa u tri skupine: simptomatske, presimptomatske (oni koji još nemaju simptoma, ali će ih razviti) i asimptomatske.
Zatim su izradili model o tome koliko će koja skupina širiti koronavirus na temelju dana kad su ljudi najzarazniji. Kao baznu vrijednost odredili su peti dan od izloženosti koronavirusu jer je utvrđeno da je to prosjek trajanja inkubacije. To je vrijeme u kojemu većina ljudi razvije simptome.
U model su prvobitno ugrađene pretpostavke po kojima je 30 posto zaraženih asimptomatsko i po kojima je njihova količina zaraznosti nešto manja (75 posto) u usporedbi s onima koji pokazuju ili će razviti simptome.
Na tim su pretpostavkama rezultati pokazali da su samo asimptomatski ljudi odgovorni za 24 posto zaraza.
No znanstvenici su usto napravili scenarije po kojima je vrhunac zaraznosti treći, četvrti, šesti i sedmi dan, u kojima su podizali i spuštali postotak asimptomatskih ljudi, kao i njihovu stopu zaraznosti u odnosu na ostale skupine.
U velikoj većini tih scenarija pokazalo se da ljudi bez simptoma (asimptomatski i presimptomatski) prenose najmanje 50 posto novih zaraza.
"Razmjeri transmisije općenito su bili preko 50 posto, neovisno o širokom spektru baznih vrijednosti", kazao je Butler i dodao da je analitičare iznenadila dosljednost rezultata.
Čak i u najkonzervativnijoj procjeni, u kojoj je vrhunac zaraze sedmi dan nakon izloženosti virusu, a asimptomatski pacijenti uzrokuju 0 posto zaraza, oni presimptomatski svejedno su uzrokovali četvrtinu novih.
Butler i njegovi suradnici istodobno upozoravaju na to da njihovi modeli vjerojatno podcjenjuju stvaran postotak širenja u kojemu sudjeluju ljudi bez simptoma pošto su stope računali kao da se svi slobodno kreću kamo žele.
No u stvarnosti se na ulazu u mnoge restorane i ostale ustanove mjeri temperatura da bi se onemogućio ulazak ljudima sa simptomima. Usto su mnoge osobe sa simptomima otprije u samoizolaciji kod kuće, što znači da je manja vjerojatnost da će širiti zarazu poput onih koji se osjećaju zdravima.
[event] => stdClass Object
(
[BeforeDisplay] =>
[AfterDisplay] =>
[AfterDisplayTitle] =>
[BeforeDisplayContent] =>
[AfterDisplayContent] =>
[OCMBeforeDisplay] =>
[OCMAfterDisplay] =>
[OCMAfterDisplayTitle] =>
[OCMBeforeDisplayContent] =>
[OCMAfterDisplayContent] =>
[OCMUserDisplay] =>
[OCMCommentsCounter] =>
[OCMCommentsBlock] =>
)
[jcfields] => Array
(
)
[image] =>
[imageWidth] => 600
[comments] => Array
(
)
[absoluteURL] => https://slobodnadalmacija.hr/mozaik/zdravlje/ljudi-bez-simptoma-odgovorni-su-za-50-posto-zaraza-koronavirusom-1070027
[emailLink] => /component/mailto/?tmpl=component&template=site&link=da62dc4c1d2446103207bf319718d45cb9e64426
[twitterURL] => http://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Ljudi+bez+simptoma+odgovorni+su+za+50+posto+zaraza+koronavirusom&url=https%3A%2F%2Fslobodnadalmacija.hr%2Fmozaik%2Fzdravlje%2Fljudi-bez-simptoma-odgovorni-su-za-50-posto-zaraza-koronavirusom-1070027
[socialLink] => https%3A%2F%2Fslobodnadalmacija.hr%2Fmozaik%2Fzdravlje%2Fljudi-bez-simptoma-odgovorni-su-za-50-posto-zaraza-koronavirusom-1070027
)
Array
(
[1] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 2
[name] => Superscript Title
[value] => Širenje virusa
[type] => textarea
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 2
[alias] => SuperscriptTitle
)
[2] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 61
[name] => Contains Infographic
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 4
[alias] => contains_infographic
)
[3] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 62
[name] => Without ads
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 5
[alias] => Withoutads
)
[4] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 63
[name] => Photo gallery
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[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 6
[alias] => Photo_gallery
)
[5] => stdClass Object
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[name] => Promo
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[type] => radio
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[published] => 1
[ordering] => 7
[alias] => promo
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[7] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 67
[name] => Contains video
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[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 9
[alias] => contains_video
)
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[id] => 68
[name] => Premium content
[value] => ON
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 10
[alias] => premium_content
)
[9] => stdClass Object
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[id] => 69
[name] => Exclude comments
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[type] => radio
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[published] => 1
[ordering] => 11
[alias] => exclude_comments
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[10] => stdClass Object
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[id] => 70
[name] => Open link in new window
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 12
[alias] => open_link_in_new_window
)
[11] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 71
[name] => Horizontal crop of the main photo
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 13
[alias] => horizontal_crop_of_the_main_photo
)
[12] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 73
[name] => No-index
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[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 15
[alias] => no_index
)
[13] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 74
[name] => No-cache
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 16
[alias] => no_cache
)
[14] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 77
[name] => Don't show on the front page
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 17
[alias] => dont_show_on_the_front_page
)
[15] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 78
[name] => Related on bottom
[value] => ON
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 18
[alias] => related_on_bottom
)
[16] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 79
[name] => Live button
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[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 19
[alias] => live_button
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[25] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 87
[name] => Instant articles
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[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 28
[alias] => instant_articles
)
[26] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 91
[name] => S preporučuje
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 29
[alias] => s_preporucuje
)
[27] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 92
[name] => S voli
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 30
[alias] => s_voli
)
[28] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 93
[name] => Layout with three photos
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 31
[alias] => layout_with_three_photos
)
[29] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 94
[name] => Gallery in the article
[value] => OFF
[type] => radio
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 32
[alias] => gallery_in_the_article
)
[30] => stdClass Object
(
[id] => 95
[name] => Required views
[value] => 0
[type] => textfield
[group] => 9
[published] => 1
[ordering] => 33
[alias] => required_views
)
)
19. svibanj 2024 15:05
