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[title] => Čak 75 posto rimskih careva umrlo je nasilnom smrću: ako su uspjeli prebroditi ‘probni rok‘ a da ih nitko ne ubije, šanse za preživljavanje naglo su rasle...
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Biti vladarom jedne od najvećih svjetskih država čini se kao ugodan posao, ali je bivanje rimskim carem, zaključili su znanstvenici, bilo jedno od najopasnijih zanimanja u povijesti.
Dobro je poznata povijesna činjenica da su mnogi rimski carevi umrli nasilno, ali je novo istraživanje pokazalo da se to zbivalo po matematičkom uzorku poznatom kao Paretovo pravilo.
Nazvano po talijanskom matematičaru Vilfredu Paretu, radi se o načelu vjerojatnosti raspodjele koje pojednostavljeno znači da uobičajeni događaji imaju 80 posto vjerojatnosti da se dogode, a oni rijetki 20 posto.
Na primjer, Paretovo pravilo koristi za odnos vjerojatnosti manjih potresa, koji su uobičajeni, i rjeđih snažnijih potresa.
“Iako se čine nasumičnim, zakoni distribucije vjerojatnosti mogu se pronaći u mnogim fenomenima povezanim sa složenim sustavima poput veličine lunarnih kratera, magnitudama potresa, frekvencijom riječi u tekstovima, tržišnim vrijednostima kompanija pa čak i u broju pratitelja na društvenim mrežama", kazao je autor studije Francisco Rodrigues sa sveučilišta Sao Paulo u Brazilu.
Krizna trinaesta godina
U slučaju sudbine rimskih careva, njihova nasilna smrt bila je mnogo češći događaj od toga da umru prirodnom smrću.
Od prvog cara Augusta (koji je umro 14. godine) do posljednjeg cara jedinstvenog carstva Teodozija (koji je umro 395.) vladari su imali samo 24,8 posto izgleda da će poživjeti dovoljno dugo da umru prirodno, izračunao je Rodrigues.
Ako se to razdoblje proširi od Augusta do zadnjeg bizantskog cara (ili Istočnog Rimskog Carstva koje je potrajalo do 1453. godine), stvari se nisu mnogo popravile. Ukupno 175 careva imalo je 70 posto izgleda da će skončati nasilno.
U tim opasnim vladavinama, neke su godine bile opasnije od drugih, utvrdili su znanstvenici.
"Analizirajući vrijeme smrti svakog cara, otkrili smo da je rizik bio najveći na samom početku", kazao je Rodrigues.
"To bi moglo imati veze s težinom i zahtjevima posla i političkim nesnalaženjem novog cara".
Ako su uspjeli prebroditi 'probni rok' a da ih nitko ne ubije, šanse za preživljavanje naglo su rasle. To jest, do određene točke.
Drugo krizno razdoblje bilo je oko 13. godine vladavine kad rizik od nasilne smrti ponovo buja. To možda odražava vrijeme kad su ambiciozni, povremeno smrtonosni 'saveznici' gubili strpljenje.
"Moguće je da su carevi rivali nakon 13-godišnjeg ciklusa carevi rivali zaključili da nije vjerojatno da će prijestolje naslijediti prirodno", kaže Rodrigues.
"A možda su se stari neprijatelji regrupirali ili novi stasali".
Znanstvenici su na koncu zaključili da je, matematički govoreći, životni vijek rimskih careva uistinu bio sličan potresima. Vjerojatnost kraće vladavine bila je otprilike jednaka vjerojatnosti slabijih potresa. I obrnuto.
Istraživanje je objavljeno u časopisu Royal Society Open Science.
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[cleanTitle] => Čak 75 posto rimskih careva umrlo je nasilnom smrću: ako su uspjeli prebroditi ‘probni rok‘ a da ih nitko ne ubije, šanse za preživljavanje naglo su rasle...
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Biti vladarom jedne od najvećih svjetskih država čini se kao ugodan posao, ali je bivanje rimskim carem, zaključili su znanstvenici, bilo jedno od najopasnijih zanimanja u povijesti.
Dobro je poznata povijesna činjenica da su mnogi rimski carevi umrli nasilno, ali je novo istraživanje pokazalo da se to zbivalo po matematičkom uzorku poznatom kao Paretovo pravilo.
Nazvano po talijanskom matematičaru Vilfredu Paretu, radi se o načelu vjerojatnosti raspodjele koje pojednostavljeno znači da uobičajeni događaji imaju 80 posto vjerojatnosti da se dogode, a oni rijetki 20 posto.
Na primjer, Paretovo pravilo koristi za odnos vjerojatnosti manjih potresa, koji su uobičajeni, i rjeđih snažnijih potresa.
“Iako se čine nasumičnim, zakoni distribucije vjerojatnosti mogu se pronaći u mnogim fenomenima povezanim sa složenim sustavima poput veličine lunarnih kratera, magnitudama potresa, frekvencijom riječi u tekstovima, tržišnim vrijednostima kompanija pa čak i u broju pratitelja na društvenim mrežama", kazao je autor studije Francisco Rodrigues sa sveučilišta Sao Paulo u Brazilu.
Krizna trinaesta godina
U slučaju sudbine rimskih careva, njihova nasilna smrt bila je mnogo češći događaj od toga da umru prirodnom smrću.
Od prvog cara Augusta (koji je umro 14. godine) do posljednjeg cara jedinstvenog carstva Teodozija (koji je umro 395.) vladari su imali samo 24,8 posto izgleda da će poživjeti dovoljno dugo da umru prirodno, izračunao je Rodrigues.
Ako se to razdoblje proširi od Augusta do zadnjeg bizantskog cara (ili Istočnog Rimskog Carstva koje je potrajalo do 1453. godine), stvari se nisu mnogo popravile. Ukupno 175 careva imalo je 70 posto izgleda da će skončati nasilno.
U tim opasnim vladavinama, neke su godine bile opasnije od drugih, utvrdili su znanstvenici.
"Analizirajući vrijeme smrti svakog cara, otkrili smo da je rizik bio najveći na samom početku", kazao je Rodrigues.
"To bi moglo imati veze s težinom i zahtjevima posla i političkim nesnalaženjem novog cara".
Ako su uspjeli prebroditi 'probni rok' a da ih nitko ne ubije, šanse za preživljavanje naglo su rasle. To jest, do određene točke.
Drugo krizno razdoblje bilo je oko 13. godine vladavine kad rizik od nasilne smrti ponovo buja. To možda odražava vrijeme kad su ambiciozni, povremeno smrtonosni 'saveznici' gubili strpljenje.
"Moguće je da su carevi rivali nakon 13-godišnjeg ciklusa carevi rivali zaključili da nije vjerojatno da će prijestolje naslijediti prirodno", kaže Rodrigues.
"A možda su se stari neprijatelji regrupirali ili novi stasali".
Znanstvenici su na koncu zaključili da je, matematički govoreći, životni vijek rimskih careva uistinu bio sličan potresima. Vjerojatnost kraće vladavine bila je otprilike jednaka vjerojatnosti slabijih potresa. I obrnuto.
Istraživanje je objavljeno u časopisu Royal Society Open Science.
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19. svibanj 2024 02:15
