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Kada bi Kina napala Tajvan, Tajvan bi se uz pomoć SAD-a i Japana uspješno branio, no gubici bi bili ogromni na obje strane. Pokazala je to simulacija ratnog sukoba u indo-pacifičkoj regiji, piše Jutarnji list.

Wall Street Journal piše da je simulacija održana u washingtonskom think tanku, Centru za strateške i međunarodne studije, testirala kako bi kineska i američka strana reagirale na poteze jedne druge.

Scenarij ratne igre pretpostavio je da je Kina odlučila napasti Tajvan te da SAD dolazi u pomoć Taipeiju. U prva tri tjedna nakon invazije na Tajvan, Kina bi potopila dva američka nosača zrakoplova i druge američke brodove, napala američke baze diljem Japana i Guama te uništila stotine naprednih američkih borbenih zrakoplova.

Kina bi iskrcala 20.000 vojnika na jugoistočnoj obali Tajvana, ali njihova amfibijska flota bila bi uništena raketnim i podmorničkim napadima SAD-a i Japana.

Kina gleda na Tajvan kao na svoj teritorij s kojim se želi ujediniti. U toj namjeri nije isključeno korištenje vojne sile. Analitičari smatraju da su rani neuspjesi Rusije tijekom invazije na Ukrajinu natjerali kineskog predsjednika Xi Jinpinga da razmotri svoje namjere u Tajvanu. Mnogi stručnjaci kažu da velike vježbe koje je Kina provodila nakon posjete Nancy Pelosi najavljuju strategiju zračne i pomorske blokade otoka. No, simulacije poput one odigrane prošlog tjedna, slične igrama koje provodi Pentagon, mogu pripremiti i testirati različite scenarije.

Zamišljeni sukob bio je smješten u 2026. godinu, a svaka je strana bila ograničena vojnim sposobnostima koje je pokazala u stvarnosti. Ratna igra koja se igrala sedam sati uključivala je ‘‘crvene‘‘ i ‘‘plave‘‘ timove, kockice s 10 strana i složene računalne izračune. Suprotstavljeni timovi izmjenjivali su se na kartama pacifičke regije i karte Tajvana, a računala su izračunavala sve podatke od veličina pista za zrakoplove te potrebno vrijeme za ponovno naoružavanje podmornica.

Igra nije uključivala korištenje nuklearnog oružja, no uključivala je amfibijsku invaziju. Kina već dugo vremena zastrašuje Tajvan amfibijskom invazijom preko 160 kilometara dugog Tajvanskog tjesnaca, u stilu Dana D u Drugom svjetskom ratu. No, takva strategija predstavljala bi užasan napor za Kinu.

Unatoč užasnim gubicima u brodovima, zrakoplovstvu i ljudstvu, američke snage bombardirale bi kineske luke, eliminirale niz brodova i uspješno napadale slabije amfibijske brodove kojima je potrebno prevesti trupe i zalihe.

Prema simulaciji, Taipei i SAD mogli bi obraniti otok, ali cijena za gospodarstvo Tajvana bila bi velika. Sposobnost Tajvana da odgovori na napad bila bi ometena kineskim informacijskim operacijama i sabotažama. Američka vojska bila bi toliko "ranjena" da bi joj bile potrebne godine da se ponovno obnovi što bi posljedično utjecalo na američku globalnu moć.

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Kineski nosač aviona Liaoning i karta vježbi oko Tajvana
Anthony Wallace/Afp/Profimedia

 

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Kineski nosač aviona Liaoning i karta vježbi oko Tajvana
Anthony Wallace/Afp/Profimedia

 

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Kada bi Kina napala Tajvan, Tajvan bi se uz pomoć SAD-a i Japana uspješno branio, no gubici bi bili ogromni na obje strane. Pokazala je to simulacija ratnog sukoba u indo-pacifičkoj regiji, piše Jutarnji list.

Wall Street Journal piše da je simulacija održana u washingtonskom think tanku, Centru za strateške i međunarodne studije, testirala kako bi kineska i američka strana reagirale na poteze jedne druge.

Scenarij ratne igre pretpostavio je da je Kina odlučila napasti Tajvan te da SAD dolazi u pomoć Taipeiju. U prva tri tjedna nakon invazije na Tajvan, Kina bi potopila dva američka nosača zrakoplova i druge američke brodove, napala američke baze diljem Japana i Guama te uništila stotine naprednih američkih borbenih zrakoplova.

Kina bi iskrcala 20.000 vojnika na jugoistočnoj obali Tajvana, ali njihova amfibijska flota bila bi uništena raketnim i podmorničkim napadima SAD-a i Japana.

Kina gleda na Tajvan kao na svoj teritorij s kojim se želi ujediniti. U toj namjeri nije isključeno korištenje vojne sile. Analitičari smatraju da su rani neuspjesi Rusije tijekom invazije na Ukrajinu natjerali kineskog predsjednika Xi Jinpinga da razmotri svoje namjere u Tajvanu. Mnogi stručnjaci kažu da velike vježbe koje je Kina provodila nakon posjete Nancy Pelosi najavljuju strategiju zračne i pomorske blokade otoka. No, simulacije poput one odigrane prošlog tjedna, slične igrama koje provodi Pentagon, mogu pripremiti i testirati različite scenarije.

Zamišljeni sukob bio je smješten u 2026. godinu, a svaka je strana bila ograničena vojnim sposobnostima koje je pokazala u stvarnosti. Ratna igra koja se igrala sedam sati uključivala je ‘‘crvene‘‘ i ‘‘plave‘‘ timove, kockice s 10 strana i složene računalne izračune. Suprotstavljeni timovi izmjenjivali su se na kartama pacifičke regije i karte Tajvana, a računala su izračunavala sve podatke od veličina pista za zrakoplove te potrebno vrijeme za ponovno naoružavanje podmornica.

Igra nije uključivala korištenje nuklearnog oružja, no uključivala je amfibijsku invaziju. Kina već dugo vremena zastrašuje Tajvan amfibijskom invazijom preko 160 kilometara dugog Tajvanskog tjesnaca, u stilu Dana D u Drugom svjetskom ratu. No, takva strategija predstavljala bi užasan napor za Kinu.

Unatoč užasnim gubicima u brodovima, zrakoplovstvu i ljudstvu, američke snage bombardirale bi kineske luke, eliminirale niz brodova i uspješno napadale slabije amfibijske brodove kojima je potrebno prevesti trupe i zalihe.

Prema simulaciji, Taipei i SAD mogli bi obraniti otok, ali cijena za gospodarstvo Tajvana bila bi velika. Sposobnost Tajvana da odgovori na napad bila bi ometena kineskim informacijskim operacijama i sabotažama. Američka vojska bila bi toliko "ranjena" da bi joj bile potrebne godine da se ponovno obnovi što bi posljedično utjecalo na američku globalnu moć.

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Kineski nosač aviona Liaoning i karta vježbi oko Tajvana
Anthony Wallace/Afp/Profimedia

 

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Amerikanci proveli ratnu simulaciju: Kako bi se odigrao napad Kine na Tajvan i tko bi pobijedio

Piše Karla Juničić/jl
10. kolovoza 2022. - 16:29

Kada bi Kina napala Tajvan, Tajvan bi se uz pomoć SAD-a i Japana uspješno branio, no gubici bi bili ogromni na obje strane. Pokazala je to simulacija ratnog sukoba u indo-pacifičkoj regiji, piše Jutarnji list.

Wall Street Journal piše da je simulacija održana u washingtonskom think tanku, Centru za strateške i međunarodne studije, testirala kako bi kineska i američka strana reagirale na poteze jedne druge.

Scenarij ratne igre pretpostavio je da je Kina odlučila napasti Tajvan te da SAD dolazi u pomoć Taipeiju. U prva tri tjedna nakon invazije na Tajvan, Kina bi potopila dva američka nosača zrakoplova i druge američke brodove, napala američke baze diljem Japana i Guama te uništila stotine naprednih američkih borbenih zrakoplova.

Kina bi iskrcala 20.000 vojnika na jugoistočnoj obali Tajvana, ali njihova amfibijska flota bila bi uništena raketnim i podmorničkim napadima SAD-a i Japana.

Kina gleda na Tajvan kao na svoj teritorij s kojim se želi ujediniti. U toj namjeri nije isključeno korištenje vojne sile. Analitičari smatraju da su rani neuspjesi Rusije tijekom invazije na Ukrajinu natjerali kineskog predsjednika Xi Jinpinga da razmotri svoje namjere u Tajvanu. Mnogi stručnjaci kažu da velike vježbe koje je Kina provodila nakon posjete Nancy Pelosi najavljuju strategiju zračne i pomorske blokade otoka. No, simulacije poput one odigrane prošlog tjedna, slične igrama koje provodi Pentagon, mogu pripremiti i testirati različite scenarije.

Zamišljeni sukob bio je smješten u 2026. godinu, a svaka je strana bila ograničena vojnim sposobnostima koje je pokazala u stvarnosti. Ratna igra koja se igrala sedam sati uključivala je ‘‘crvene‘‘ i ‘‘plave‘‘ timove, kockice s 10 strana i složene računalne izračune. Suprotstavljeni timovi izmjenjivali su se na kartama pacifičke regije i karte Tajvana, a računala su izračunavala sve podatke od veličina pista za zrakoplove te potrebno vrijeme za ponovno naoružavanje podmornica.

Igra nije uključivala korištenje nuklearnog oružja, no uključivala je amfibijsku invaziju. Kina već dugo vremena zastrašuje Tajvan amfibijskom invazijom preko 160 kilometara dugog Tajvanskog tjesnaca, u stilu Dana D u Drugom svjetskom ratu. No, takva strategija predstavljala bi užasan napor za Kinu.

Unatoč užasnim gubicima u brodovima, zrakoplovstvu i ljudstvu, američke snage bombardirale bi kineske luke, eliminirale niz brodova i uspješno napadale slabije amfibijske brodove kojima je potrebno prevesti trupe i zalihe.

Prema simulaciji, Taipei i SAD mogli bi obraniti otok, ali cijena za gospodarstvo Tajvana bila bi velika. Sposobnost Tajvana da odgovori na napad bila bi ometena kineskim informacijskim operacijama i sabotažama. Američka vojska bila bi toliko "ranjena" da bi joj bile potrebne godine da se ponovno obnovi što bi posljedično utjecalo na američku globalnu moć.

16. svibanj 2024 13:45