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stdClass Object ( [id] => 1226330 [title] => Institut za rat: ‘Mobilizacija 300.000 ruskih rezervista ne može u ovom trenutku ništa pomoći Putinu, Ukrajina ima vremena za oslobađanje svoje zemlje‘ [alias] => institut-za-rat-mobilizacija-300-000-ruskih-rezervista-ne-moze-u-ovom-trenutku-nista-pomoci-putinu-ukrajina-ima-vremena-za-oslobadanje-svoje-zemlje [catid] => 241 [published] => 1 [introtext] => [fulltext] =>

Institut za proučavanje rata (ISW) u svojoj najnovijoj analizi ocjenjuje kako Vladimir Putin unatoč djelomičnoj mobilizaciji ljudstva neće još mjesecima moći ojačati svoje borbene linije. Kremlj će regrutirati samo "one koji su služili u oružanim snagama i imaju određene vojne specijalnosti", rekao je Putin dok su studenti i samohrani očevi izuzeti.

Institut navodi kako objava o djelomičnoj mobilizaciji odražava mnoge probleme s kojima se Rusija suočava u invaziji na Ukrajinu, a koje Moskva neće moći riješiti u nadolazećim mjesecima. Putinova najava pritom je izazvala nemir među civilnim stanovništvom Rusije koje je do sada bilo izolirano od najgorih učinaka sedmomjesečnog šireg rata Rusije u Ukrajini.

Putin i Šojgu su izričito rekli da će biti mobilizirani samo rezervisti koji su odslužili početni vojni rok, jasno dajući do znanja da Rusija neće proširiti novačenje. Šojgu je također izjavio da to neće utjecati na studente i rekao im je da bezbrižno nastave sa svojim učenjem. Ovi su komentari očito imali za cilj ublažiti strah među ruskim stanovništvom da je djelomična mobilizacija šifra za opću vojnu obvezu.

“Mobilizacija 300.000 ‘rezervista‘, nakon neuspjeha s osiromašenim konvencionalnim snagama, odrpanim milicijama, novačenjem zatvorenika i korištenjem paravojnih postrojbi poput Wagnerove skupine, bit će iznimno teška - ocijenio je Mark Hertling, umirovljeni general američke vojske.

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Institut za rat podsjeća i na činjenicu da su kako su ruski rezervisti slabo pripremljeni i ne dobivaju obuku nakon završetka vojnog roka. Ruski obvezni vojni rok traje samo godinu dana, što ročnicima daje malo vremena da nauče kako biti vojnici.

Izostanak dodatne obuke nakon odsluženog vojnog roka jako ubrzava degradaciju naučenih vojničkih vještina tijekom vremena. Šojgu je spominjao namjeru pozivanja rezervista s "borbenim iskustvom", ali vrlo malo ruskih rezervista osim onih koji sada služe u Ukrajini ima ikakvo borbeno iskustvo.

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„U Rusiji je praksa da brigade na prvoj liniji vode većinu obuke za nove trupe. To znači da je obuka postrojbe u najboljem slučaju nedosljedna i da varira ovisno o resursima kojima svaka brigada raspolaže. Način na koji su jedinice opremljene igra veliku ulogu. Jedna tenkovska jedinica koju sam svojedobno posjetio u blizini Moskve ponosno mi je rekla da svake godine dobiju jednu tenkovsku rundu po posadi – komentirao je Hertling.

ISW zaključuje kako ruska djelomična mobilizacija vjerojatno neće transformirati rat ove godine i može, ali može imati  značajan utjecaj na sposobnost Rusije da nastavi s operacijama na sadašnjoj razini sljedeće godine. ISW smatra kako djelomična mobilizacija Rusije stoga neće lišiti Ukrajinu prilike da oslobodi veći dio svog okupiranog teritorija tijekom zime.

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Institut za proučavanje rata (ISW) u svojoj najnovijoj analizi ocjenjuje kako Vladimir Putin unatoč djelomičnoj mobilizaciji ljudstva neće još mjesecima moći ojačati svoje borbene linije. Kremlj će regrutirati samo "one koji su služili u oružanim snagama i imaju određene vojne specijalnosti", rekao je Putin dok su studenti i samohrani očevi izuzeti.

Institut navodi kako objava o djelomičnoj mobilizaciji odražava mnoge probleme s kojima se Rusija suočava u invaziji na Ukrajinu, a koje Moskva neće moći riješiti u nadolazećim mjesecima. Putinova najava pritom je izazvala nemir među civilnim stanovništvom Rusije koje je do sada bilo izolirano od najgorih učinaka sedmomjesečnog šireg rata Rusije u Ukrajini.

Putin i Šojgu su izričito rekli da će biti mobilizirani samo rezervisti koji su odslužili početni vojni rok, jasno dajući do znanja da Rusija neće proširiti novačenje. Šojgu je također izjavio da to neće utjecati na studente i rekao im je da bezbrižno nastave sa svojim učenjem. Ovi su komentari očito imali za cilj ublažiti strah među ruskim stanovništvom da je djelomična mobilizacija šifra za opću vojnu obvezu.

“Mobilizacija 300.000 ‘rezervista‘, nakon neuspjeha s osiromašenim konvencionalnim snagama, odrpanim milicijama, novačenjem zatvorenika i korištenjem paravojnih postrojbi poput Wagnerove skupine, bit će iznimno teška - ocijenio je Mark Hertling, umirovljeni general američke vojske.

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Institut za rat podsjeća i na činjenicu da su kako su ruski rezervisti slabo pripremljeni i ne dobivaju obuku nakon završetka vojnog roka. Ruski obvezni vojni rok traje samo godinu dana, što ročnicima daje malo vremena da nauče kako biti vojnici.

Izostanak dodatne obuke nakon odsluženog vojnog roka jako ubrzava degradaciju naučenih vojničkih vještina tijekom vremena. Šojgu je spominjao namjeru pozivanja rezervista s "borbenim iskustvom", ali vrlo malo ruskih rezervista osim onih koji sada služe u Ukrajini ima ikakvo borbeno iskustvo.

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„U Rusiji je praksa da brigade na prvoj liniji vode većinu obuke za nove trupe. To znači da je obuka postrojbe u najboljem slučaju nedosljedna i da varira ovisno o resursima kojima svaka brigada raspolaže. Način na koji su jedinice opremljene igra veliku ulogu. Jedna tenkovska jedinica koju sam svojedobno posjetio u blizini Moskve ponosno mi je rekla da svake godine dobiju jednu tenkovsku rundu po posadi – komentirao je Hertling.

ISW zaključuje kako ruska djelomična mobilizacija vjerojatno neće transformirati rat ove godine i može, ali može imati  značajan utjecaj na sposobnost Rusije da nastavi s operacijama na sadašnjoj razini sljedeće godine. ISW smatra kako djelomična mobilizacija Rusije stoga neće lišiti Ukrajinu prilike da oslobodi veći dio svog okupiranog teritorija tijekom zime.

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Mikhail Klimentyev/Afp
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Svijetslabo obučeni

Institut za rat: ‘Mobilizacija 300.000 ruskih rezervista ne može u ovom trenutku ništa pomoći Putinu, Ukrajina ima vremena za oslobađanje svoje zemlje‘

Piše Anita Belak Krile
22. rujna 2022. - 09:14
23449994
PREMIUM
Mikhail Klimentyev/Afp

Institut za proučavanje rata (ISW) u svojoj najnovijoj analizi ocjenjuje kako Vladimir Putin unatoč djelomičnoj mobilizaciji ljudstva neće još mjesecima moći ojačati svoje borbene linije. Kremlj će regrutirati samo "one koji su služili u oružanim snagama i imaju određene vojne specijalnosti", rekao je Putin dok su studenti i samohrani očevi izuzeti.

Institut navodi kako objava o djelomičnoj mobilizaciji odražava mnoge probleme s kojima se Rusija suočava u invaziji na Ukrajinu, a koje Moskva neće moći riješiti u nadolazećim mjesecima. Putinova najava pritom je izazvala nemir među civilnim stanovništvom Rusije koje je do sada bilo izolirano od najgorih učinaka sedmomjesečnog šireg rata Rusije u Ukrajini.

Putin i Šojgu su izričito rekli da će biti mobilizirani samo re...

#INSTITUT ZA RAT#RUSIJA#VLADIMIR PUTIN#MOBILIZACIJA#MARK HERTLING #ISW
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